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What I've been thinking about...

Strange Loops and Emergent Consciousness

My belief is that the explanations of “emergent” phenomena in our brains - for instance, ideas, hopes, images, analogies, and finally consciousness and free will - are based on a kind of Strange Loop, and interaction between levels in which the top level reaches back down towards the bottom level and influences it, while at the same time being itself determined by the bottom level.

Douglas Hofstadter from “Godel, Escher, Bach”

At least one of these loops exists in the world of mathematics… the “true but unprovable” statements that Kurt Godel proved must exist in any sufficiently complex model.  Typographically, these statements will never result from dumbly generating theorems by using rules of inference.  Yet, the reason they will not be produced cannot be found in the typography, only in the higher level “meaning” of the statement itself.  In a sense, the high level meaning reaches down to exert a condition on the lower level symbols, which then procede to bear out the meaning of the statement.

One can get dizzy thinking about it.

On whether Consciousness actually is an instance of this strange looping behaviour happening in the brain (as opposed to in mathematical systems), I’m not sure I agree.  As materialist theories go, this is the one that comes closest to raising the hairs on the back of my neck.  It is a beautiful, hard to grasp theory that bears out some of our intuitions.  Still, I can’t help but look for the sound of trombone and the smell of roses, and having a hard time seeing where they make their appearance.

Drawing by (who else?) M.C. Escher.

Captain Britain - Championing not only freedom, but Free Will

Some Philosophy via Venn Diagram
Free will is complicated.  Not only is it difficult to say it exists, it is difficult even to define it.  Ditto for Determinism, the (maybe) opposite state of affairs.
I had this idea that perhaps I could draw some circles in a Venn diagram - one for each relevant quality, like “Predictable”, or “Impeded”, etc, then make them all intersect in appropriate ways, and then Free Will would stand out in bold as one section of the diagram.  As it turns out, my idea of free will involves levels of complexity (atoms vs cells vs animals etc), and that idea just doesn’t seem to be “Vennable”.
Still, I think these diagrams can be a good aid to thought in a more limited form.  In the above diagram I’m making some claims about different qualities that have to do with Determinism.  I’ve got three qualities contained one within the other (the shapes of the “circles” are purely aesthetic).  The are: Predictable (in practice), Predictable (in theory), and Definite.
Predictable (in practice).  Just as it sounds, things in this category are predictable using current technology and methods, without resorting to infinitely fast computers, infinitely fine-grained knowledge, or other hypothetical philosphical tools.  Examples might include predicting eclipses, knowing traffic will be bad during rush hour, or knowing eggs will break when dropped from a certain height.
Predictable (in theory).  Items in this category (but outside the practical predictions) might simply involve too many variables to handle.  Like, how will the egg-shell scatter when the egg is dropped, or where a pinball will come to rest when released.  It may also include predictions that could be made using more knowledge than we have, or can collect using current technology (ex, could we track the path of a specific molecule in a room full of air, if we knew the positions of all the molecules to begin with?)
Definite.  With this category I’m saying something interesting.  The previous two categories involved predicting things, which implies those things will definitely happen.  What I mean to include in this category are things that will definitely happen, even if they are not predictable at all.  One could argue that everything Definite is also Predictable (in theory)… but I don’t believe so.  For example, Godel’s famous theorem tells us that in any axiom system, there is a theorem that is true, but not provable (ie not predictable).  If nothing else, these truths can fit into the gap between Definite and Predictable.
One more distinction is implicit, and this one may be most at the heart of the ancient philosophical riddles.  It’s the area outside Definite.  Is anything outside this circle?  Certain kinds of determinists would say no - everything is definite.
I don’t think this most extreme view is very likely.  For example, Random things are not definite, and we have some pretty compelling evidence from Quantum Physics that randomness exists in the microscopic world.  I’ve argued previously that if it does, then it’s not hard for that micro-randomness to show itself at the macro-level and affect us (see this post).
Those that believe Free Will involves Secrecy can incur somewhat into the Definite circle, as long as they stay outside one or both of the Predictable circles.  Other definitions might require free will to live outside Definite entirely.  Perhaps the next Venn will explore this space further…

Some Philosophy via Venn Diagram

Free will is complicated.  Not only is it difficult to say it exists, it is difficult even to define it.  Ditto for Determinism, the (maybe) opposite state of affairs.

I had this idea that perhaps I could draw some circles in a Venn diagram - one for each relevant quality, like “Predictable”, or “Impeded”, etc, then make them all intersect in appropriate ways, and then Free Will would stand out in bold as one section of the diagram.  As it turns out, my idea of free will involves levels of complexity (atoms vs cells vs animals etc), and that idea just doesn’t seem to be “Vennable”.

Still, I think these diagrams can be a good aid to thought in a more limited form.  In the above diagram I’m making some claims about different qualities that have to do with Determinism.  I’ve got three qualities contained one within the other (the shapes of the “circles” are purely aesthetic).  The are: Predictable (in practice), Predictable (in theory), and Definite.

  1. Predictable (in practice).  Just as it sounds, things in this category are predictable using current technology and methods, without resorting to infinitely fast computers, infinitely fine-grained knowledge, or other hypothetical philosphical tools.  Examples might include predicting eclipses, knowing traffic will be bad during rush hour, or knowing eggs will break when dropped from a certain height.
  2. Predictable (in theory).  Items in this category (but outside the practical predictions) might simply involve too many variables to handle.  Like, how will the egg-shell scatter when the egg is dropped, or where a pinball will come to rest when released.  It may also include predictions that could be made using more knowledge than we have, or can collect using current technology (ex, could we track the path of a specific molecule in a room full of air, if we knew the positions of all the molecules to begin with?)
  3. Definite.  With this category I’m saying something interesting.  The previous two categories involved predicting things, which implies those things will definitely happen.  What I mean to include in this category are things that will definitely happen, even if they are not predictable at all.  One could argue that everything Definite is also Predictable (in theory)… but I don’t believe so.  For example, Godel’s famous theorem tells us that in any axiom system, there is a theorem that is true, but not provable (ie not predictable).  If nothing else, these truths can fit into the gap between Definite and Predictable.

One more distinction is implicit, and this one may be most at the heart of the ancient philosophical riddles.  It’s the area outside Definite.  Is anything outside this circle?  Certain kinds of determinists would say no - everything is definite.

I don’t think this most extreme view is very likely.  For example, Random things are not definite, and we have some pretty compelling evidence from Quantum Physics that randomness exists in the microscopic world.  I’ve argued previously that if it does, then it’s not hard for that micro-randomness to show itself at the macro-level and affect us (see this post).

Those that believe Free Will involves Secrecy can incur somewhat into the Definite circle, as long as they stay outside one or both of the Predictable circles.  Other definitions might require free will to live outside Definite entirely.  Perhaps the next Venn will explore this space further…

Free Will and Impeded Paths

Thanks to adialogue for the following quote, which she pointed out in response to my post on Free Will (and being hemmed in by impediments):

“You thought, as a boy, that a mage is one who can do anything. So I thought, once. So did we all. And the truth is that as a man’s real power grows and his knowledge widens, ever the way he can follow grows narrower: until at last he chooses nothing, but does only and wholly what he must do …”

- Wise words spoken to Sparrowhawk in Ursula Le Guin’s Wizard of Earthsea.

The mages in Earthsea are often serious and wise.  And as they become wiser, their actions, in particular the way they use magic, becomes more and more restricted by their perceptions of balance and nature, and how to maintain them.

Is there a metaphor here for our expanding knowledge of the physical world we live in?  In a way, I hope not.

Is This Boulder Free?
I’ve been thinking about free will lately.  People have been “content to agonize” over free will for such a long time because there is a lot of tension in the idea. On the one hand, the idea of free will doesn’t seem to stand up to close examination.  Every good philosopher I know either rejects it outright, or changes the definition before accepting it.  On the other hand, we can’t help referring to free will in real life.  We mean something by it, and it’s tied up with our notion of responsibility.
So here I am still thinking about it!
I think it’s true that there’s some overlap or confusion between the notions of Free, and Unimpeded, and this is what got me thinking about the Boulder…
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Caused, but Unimpeded
Cause, or Influence is also tied up with our notion of what is free.  The boulder in the picture above is certainly caused/influenced by the little man pushing it.  When it eventually rolls down the slope/off the cliff, we can say that the man caused it to do that.
However, it’s also unimpeded.  A brick wall in front of the boulder would be an impediment… it would not be free to roll off the cliff.
I think this situation applies to physical freedom quite often, and what we mean when we describe things as “free to do X”.  In common parlance, one can’t deny the truth of “I’m free to drink coffee in the morning”.  I’m not saying there’s no cause when I drink coffee.  I likely have a mild caffeine addiction.  I’ve watched a zillion commercials of people going “sip… ah!”  Some collection of things causes me to drink coffee on a particular day.
When we say “I’m free to drink coffee”, I think what we really mean is that I’m unimpeded.  Coffee isn’t illegal, or unavailable. No crazy person is watching me and keeping me out of Starbucks.  I’m free to drink it.
But Wait, What Makes an “Impediment”?
The brick wall or the crazy person are obviously impediments (to the boulder, and to my drinking coffee respectively).  But it gets more complicated.  For instance, is my mild caffeine addiction an impediment to my freedom NOT to drink coffee?
Or how about this… the boulder may be free to roll off the cliff, but is the little man an impediment to the boulder rolling right, back down the hill?  Is gravity an impediment to the boulder floating straight upward?
It seems like impediments and causes can be mixed up with one another. That makes it problematic to say that physically free things can have causes, but no impediments.
Have What You Like… As Long As It’s Coffee!
So the boulder is free to roll off the cliff, but not back down the hill, and not to float up into the air… it’s free to do exactly one thing.
Given my past conditioning and current mood, I’m free to drink some coffee.  My tastes impede me from drinking tea or grapefruit juice, and my addiction impedes me from skipping the beverage all together.  I’m free to choose, as long as I choose coffee.
Is this what we mean by freedom?  If we can only say “free to do X” for one specific X in any given situation, this seems to violate the spirit of the word “free”.  In fact, we might define freedom in general as the state of being free to do more than one thing!
I think this might be how some philosophers have been led to secrecy being important to freedom.  In reality, we may have only one choice, but with so many causal factors being secret, we’re ignorant of which “one thing” it is that we’re free to do!  Is this a good substitute for what we usually mean by freedom?
To be continued…

Is This Boulder Free?

I’ve been thinking about free will lately.  People have been “content to agonize” over free will for such a long time because there is a lot of tension in the idea. On the one hand, the idea of free will doesn’t seem to stand up to close examination.  Every good philosopher I know either rejects it outright, or changes the definition before accepting it.  On the other hand, we can’t help referring to free will in real life.  We mean something by it, and it’s tied up with our notion of responsibility.

So here I am still thinking about it!

I think it’s true that there’s some overlap or confusion between the notions of Free, and Unimpeded, and this is what got me thinking about the Boulder…

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Conversation with Rudy Rucker

abdullahnaeem:

Gödel seemed to believe that not only is the future already there, but worse, that it is, in principle, possible to predict completely the actions of some given person. I objected that if there were a completely accurate theory predicting my actions, then I could prove the theory false—by learning the theory and then doing the opposite of what it predicted. According to my notes, Gödel’s response went as follows:

It should be possible to form a complete theory of human behavior, i.e., to predict from the hereditary and environmental givens what a person will do. However, if a mischievous person learns of this theory, he can act in a way so as to negate it. Hence I conclude that such a theory exists, but that no mischievous person will learn of it. In the same way, time travel is possible, but no person will ever manage to kill his past self.

Gödel laughed his laugh then, and concluded,

The a priori is greatly neglected. Logic is very powerful.

Apropos of the free will question, on another occasion he said:

There is no contradiction between free will and knowing in advance precisely what one will do. If one knows oneself completely then this is the situation. One does not deliberately do the opposite of what one wants. [168]

Trust Godel to sweep away weeks worth of my tortured thinking on the subject and clear things up in a paragraph… while laughing no less!  Well said.

As I'm sure you're aware, I believe the concept of free will is inherently flawed, in that the concept itself is contradictory. My perspective being that all things must be either determined or not determined, or a combination of the two. Things that are not determined must be random (and therefore not willful). You say that it may be possible for something to be neither determined nor random, but how? Surely the brain is complex, but from what kind of network could free will possibly emerge?

I’ve had this question on the backburner for a week or so, but it’s too good not to answer, even if some time has passed.

To thievishmonkey: to answer you specifically, I think the biggest gap between my thinking and yours is likely my focus on different levels of complexity, and how some concepts don’t reduce well to lower levels, and how we should conclude that causes for some events can only be meaningfully answered at higher levels.  I think that heat is a great example of this, and I wrote a post on the topic (it was maybe my 4th or 5th post after starting this blog, so it may be a little raw, but it should make the point).  Of course, many emotions and psychological states are also good examples of irreducibles.

To everybody: To answer the question then… I’m not sure I want to defend free will.  It’s hard to define, I think much more so than determinism.  I definitely don’t believe in anything that has a one-way relationship with the causal web.  That is, something which can be a cause, but is not subject to causes.

However, I think I could make an argument for something being neither determined nor random.  I recently wrote that I feel I can reject the kind of absolute determinism that means perfect prediction of the future (see this post), but even with a less strict definition, I think determinism can be escaped.

My candidates for non-determinism are the aforementioned events that do not reduce well to lower levels of complexity.  Events for which no cause at a lower level is meaningful.  For example, if I am surprised by the bark of a dog, neither my surprise, not it’s cause are very well described at lower levels.  How is surprise described in terms of neural patterns?  And if you zoom in close to observe the sound waves, the dog’s bark may actually be hard to distinguish from the background noise, let alone it’s effect on my eardrums, and on into the neural encoding, etc.  The data may be given en masse, but the meaningful causes are at the human level.

My suggestion is that in an event of this kind, if it’s possible for someone to know every human-level fact about me, but to still be uncertain what my reaction will be, then this reaction might be considered not determined.

If when I’m surprised by the dog bark, I am accompanied by my (fictional) sister, who has hardly left my side our entire lives, she may still not know if my reaction will be to freeze, to shout, to run, to gasp, etc.  This despite the fact that she could be said to know all human-level facts about me.  Had I myself been asked five minutes earlier whether I would freeze or gasp, I may not have been able to know, despite my complete access to my own history and psychology.

Thus, we have an act not predicted (determined) by it’s causes… at least the causes that count.

And the fact that I am talking about causes should give the hint that I also don’t believe these to be random acts.  If I gasp when the dog barks, and someone asks my why I gasped, the answer is not that it was random.  It had a cause, despite being unpredictable.

In the question, thievishmonkey suggested that “things that are not determined must be random.“  I would say that this claim needs defense.  Perhaps in the contexts we’re using, the word random needs more examination.  A random number between one and ten is easy to understand, but what is a random reaction to a dog’s bark?  Does it assign probabilities to a couple of possible reactions?  Must anything be possible for the result to be random?  For instance, should there be an infinitesimal chance of my turning bright blue in the reaction to the bark?  A chance that I’ll turn into a dog myself?  I’m exaggerating on purpose, but hopefully you take my meaning that random may not be well understood in this context.

I hope that answers the question and, if not, this is a debate I’d be glad to continue.

I just read your post on complexity layers, and found the ideas you presented very interesting. I've been dealing with the Determinism problem for a while now, and to me, it's the central point of all philosophy, as in a deterministic world, philosophy and the human consciousness itself would serve no purpose other than to follow a predetermined path. Clearly, the free will position is the more difficult one to argue for, but I think you're definitely onto something and would love to read more!

Thanks!  To see the post mentioned, click here.  Philosophy is full of problems that, if they turn out to be real problems, become the showstopper for all of existence.  Is God real?  Are we brains in vats?  Are all my actions predetermined?

Determinism has always been a tempting one for me, because of its importance, but also because there seem to be intuitive arguments both for and against it.  Writing that last post on layers of complexity allowed me to revisit what I think determinism is.  I’ve learned a lot about science since the last time I carefully thought through some of these issues, and that extra knowledge makes all the difference.  With what I know now, Determinism actually starts to look like a pretty indefensible position!

The short answer as to why: Quantum Physics

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Have you heard of Daniel Dennett's intentionality stance in philosophy of mind? It struck me as quite similar in essence to your agent causation theory

I’ve read quite a bit of Dennett, and quite often he wins me over.  If I remember right, the Intentionality Stance is one way of viewing something in the world for the purpose of making predictions (the other two are something like the Physical Stance and the System Stance).

Though I think Dennett ducks some of the tough questions by claiming this is all just a heuristic for prediction, there are some common ideas with what I wrote.  For example:

  • His three stances/levels (physical,system,intentional) are different levels of organizational complexity.
  • He suggests that specific stances are best at explaining/predicting certain events.  This is somewhat like my saying that human-level properties like hunger can’t be well described at lower levels of complexity.

I haven’t by any means read all of Dennett’s writing!  However, I get the idea that Dennett still believes it’s all “really” physical, and the higher level stances are predictive conveniences.  Surely, they are shrewd and necessary conveniences, but this is all the respect they get.

I want to claim that phenomena at all levels have an equal claim on “being real” (whatever that means!)  To be clearer, I don’t think the most reduced levels of complexity should be seen as the most foundational.  For all we know, reduction is an endless process, and we’ll continually have our foundations swept away by the discovery of finer-grained levels of reality.  Any level can provide a foundation of sorts, and have causal effects on it’s own level, and possibly on others.  I haven’t discussed this YET, but I do think some causal connections cross layers, and I do think that the crossing can involve a higher complexity cause and a lower complexity effect.  But more on that later.

To switch gears somewhat, I have also read a lot of what he has to say about free will and determinism.  I posted a nice excerpt from one of his talks in which he describes a kind of freedom we can ascribe to computer chess programs, and I tried to explain the connection a little here.

I’m not sure that I’m in total synch with his views, however my views and his have a similar feel:

  • Both are compatabilist - accepting Determinism, but arguing that some important interpretations of Free Will are still viable.
  • Pointing out that randomness isn’t an alternative to Free Will that we would want.
  • Dennett speaks of secrecy being essential to agency.  It’s hard to pin down how, but having agents be secretive makes me think of agents having human-level attributes that can’t be reduced to lower levels.

Thanks for the response!  Clearly more to come on this topic.

I have this idea…

I have this idea that Determinism can turn on or shut off between layers.  Not layers of depth, or size, but layers of complexity.

Reality can always be viewed at different scales.  There’s the scale of microscopic cells.  The scale of atoms and molecules.  There’s the scale of quantum effects and elementary particles.  The scale of the expanding universe.  And of course, our favorite, animal scale, where objects seem solid, things have boundaries, and nothing moves close to the speed of light.

Among these choices of scale, we can find examples of Probabilistic behaviour, Determined behaviour, and “Agent” behaviour, which we might call free will.  I’m beginning to believe that these different sorts of behaviour can co-exist at different levels of complexity, without contradiction.

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Philosophy via Self-Reference

  • Determinism is so interesting, you *can’t help* wanting to know more.
  • How much Epistemology can one philosopher know?
  • I didn’t take Phil of Free Will - it was an elective course.
  • Philosophy of Language is meaningless to me.
  • Platonism is the ideal philosophical movement.
  • Evidence tells us to trust Empirical knowledge.
  • Dualism is another thing all together.
  • Incorrect self-referential sentences defy Logic.

And, lastly…

  • Take Skeptical views with a grain of salt.

V.S. Ramachandran
"My Brain Made Me Do it"
Radiolab

This is a 3:30 excerpt from an episode of Radiolab.  In it, we hear about an experiment in which subjects hooked up to an mri are asked to wiggle their fingers whenever they decide.  Sounds almost boring.  The really interesting thing is that evidence of their choice shows up in the brain scans significantly before subjects report having made the descision!

Results like this one keep cropping up in philosophy talks, but I’d never really found a summary nicely packaged enough for a blog post.  I should have known that the place to look was into the archives at Radiolab.  Silly me.

Does this mean…

  • that there is no free will and that we are “controlled” by our brains?
  • that we (our minds/consciousnesses) are not identical with our brains?

As is always the case in philosophy, these results don’t seem to offer definitive answers, even if they seem to at first.  The hosts Jad and Robert, and the researcher V.S. Ramachandran all quickly (and almost lightheartedly) decide the world is without free will.  If you agree, or if you feel like that can’t be right, so some more reading… this is an engaging and thorny topic!

One very interesting idea suggested in the podcast is to set up some kind of feedback, but letting the subject see the mri screen (presumably with some instructions in how to interpret it).  In the podcast, they suggest that the “blip” would always precede the “finger wiggle”, so the subject would conclude they are being controlled (or the blip “has ESP”).

However, I think there would be time for the subject to inhibit the finger wiggle (the lag is something like 2 seconds).  What would happen if the subject were asked to fake out the blip… if they were asked to wiggle their fingers, but not within 2 seconds after the blip had appeared?  Would they be stuck continuously starting, then inhibiting their actions?  Or would some sort of new relationship between brain and action begin to emerge?  If anyone has heard of such a study (I haven’t), please let me know!

Jad Abumrad, Robert Krulwich, Brian Greene
"No Special Now"
Radiolab

This is a 20 minute episode of Radiolab from 2007.  It’s a mixed bag of reflections on time, starting with “there is not future or past”, to anecdotes about Einstein’s developement of relativity, and oddly it ends with reflections on free will and possible resolutions using the “many worlds interpretation” from quantum physics!

None of the topics is particularly new… but it’s easy to listen to as radiolab always is, and it packs A TON of bread-and-butter philosophical problems into a 20 minute show.

For some credits, we hear hosts Jad Abumrad and Robert Krulwich, with additional help from Michio Kaku, Lisa Randall, V.S. Ramachandran, and lots of material from Brian Greene.

I’ll post some shorter clips from this show later on, with analyses of some of the concepts introduced.  Good stuff!

So it seems that Dennett isn't really arguing for the existence of free will, he's just forming a concept of what people mean when they say a choice is made freely, right? So for the sake of mutual understanding, he forms this concept of things that "could be," though it seems ultimately he is just framing that in a world which we know to be deterministic. Thus, he essentially explains why we perceive free choice even though everything really is deterministic. Do you think that's right?

Yeah, that sounds right.  So how come you managed to sum it up in one paragraph and it took me several pages?!  Just kidding.

You’re right that Dennett explains an everyday meaning of free will that is indeed compatable with determinism.  Whether Dennett is onboard with Determinism, I don’t want to commit, but it *seems* he is.

By avoiding the (philosophically) conventional connotations of free will, you may think he was dealing with an uninteresting question.  But I think it’s important.  I’d say the type of free will he talks about (which he calls the only kind worth having) is actually what many people want to defend when they react negatively to determinism.  By creating an idea of free will that salvages some of the dignity we associate with it, and simultaneously cooperates with determinism, he could potentially be trying to end this long argument.

How else is it to end?  One side will rarely admit it’s wrong.  Instead the sides may eventually start communicating, and say “oh, did you mean this?”, and “Oh, well I never meant that”, and end up with “It seems there was never any disagreement all along”.

For those who want more, the post that sparked this question is here.  Thanks for asking!


“The Secrecy is Essential to the Freedom of the Agent…”

- Daniel Dennett
Awhile back, I posted an audio clip of Daniel Dennett talking about chess programs, and how it makes sense to say that one “could have” beat the other, even though they’re deterministic programs.
It was a ten minute clip taken out of the full podcast, which was one hour.  On listening again, I may have lost some of the clarity of the connection to the topic of Free Will in the interests of brevity.  Because I think there is a worthwhile point here, I’m going to take a stab at a written summary.
If you want to find out how chess programs, Secrecy, and Free Will are looped together into one super-meme, click on the read more link…
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Free Will Means Something
If I had to guess, I’d say Dennett believes in physical Determinism.  Still, he speaks to justify and define Free Will for the full hour in this talk.  Whatever inconsistencies may exist, there are sentences that use the concept of Free Will that really mean something.  For example:
I’m more free than a person with bound hands and feet.
In Canada we’re free to criticize our politicians.
An epileptic becomes less free during a seizure.
Unless they’re being difficult (see picture below) anyone, including determinists, will admit that these sentences have meaning and are true.  In his talk, I think Dennett’s aim is to find the definition for a Free Will that is philosophical, but that also applies to common uses like those above.

This Heading “Could Be” Shorter
For Dennett, Free Will is tied up with the idea that something “could be” different than it actually is.  Even if I sit with my hands in my lap, I’m freer than I would be with bound hands, because I “could” make any gesture I like.
For a physical determinist, this is a tricky issue.  An argument could be made that the deterministic conditions leading to my choice to keep my hands still is just as much of a cage as a rope would be.  However, Dennett defines what “could be” means in a way that’s compatable with Determinism.
He says that every “could be” statement has an implicit list of mutable conditions.  For example, to say that I “could make any gesture” might really mean that I “could make any gesture in a hypothetical world where my thought process was different.”
We must not take this too far.  If *any* hypothetical world is allowed, then it would follow that absolutely anything “could be” true.  For example, “I could have leapt into the sky and flown to work today” is false, but if we allow hypothetical worlds where Gravity is different, where humans have wings, etc, we may be tempted to call it true.  So we must not allow *all* conditions to be mutable, only some.
How do we choose?  Which conditions should be mutable?  It seems there are an array of answers “right” enough to pass in everyday English.  However, Dennett suggests that conditions that are Secret are the ones we should allow to be mutable.
Secret Physical Conditions Should Be Mutable
For example, imagine that Tiger Woods and I both attempted to make a hole-in-one, and we both missed.
“I could have made that shot” I say.  My claim is false because I would have to consider a very different hypothetical world, in which non-secret conditions (like my being a uniformly unskilled golfer) are different.
“I could have made that shot” says Tiger.  His claim is true, because he only needs to consider hypothetical worlds where the eddies of wind, or the arrangement of the blades of grass is different, and these conditions are secrets to us as we swing our clubs.
Of course, every agent has many secret conditions right inside their own brains (secret to themselves even).  I suspect that this is what Dennett would say qualifies them as “agents”.
Chess
To drive his point home, Dennett explains how his definition of “could be” functions well even in clearly deterministic situations.  The deterministic situation he chooses is pitting two chess-playing computer programs against each other.  The audio of this part of the talk is available in this post.
To cover himself, Dennett allows the programs to use psuedo random number generators (which are also deterministic by the way).  He then suggests the two programs play 1000 games against each other.  He points out that if the random number generators are restarted from scratch, and 1000 more games are played, they will be the EXACT SAME GAMES as the first time.
Now, we start asking questions, like “Why did program A win game number 611?”  Or, assuming program A won the majority of the games, we can ask “Why did program A win more?”  Dennett astutely points out that the answer “because it was determined to win” is no answer at all.  The true answer, he says, should be something like “because program A is better designed.”
We must ask ourself if program B *could have* won those games.  The answer is yes if B wins in a set of “reasonable” hypothetical worlds.  Such as:
The random number generator(s) are in a different state.
B misses a really good move by only a small amount (ex if B checks 500 scenarios, but 502 were required).
A notices and makes a really good move by only a small amount (ex if A checks 500 scenarios and the 495th is the good move).
On the other hand, some hypothetical worlds are not allowed in the consideration of whether B could have won:
A or B have different algorithms.
The rules of chess are different.
The random number generator(s) manage to work in B’s favour every time.
The items in this list are evidently false, wheras changes like those in the first list would be secret.  Roughly speaking, saying truthfully whether or not these chess programs could have behaved differently (even though they are deterministic) is consistent with Dennett’s definition of “could have”.
The Conclusion in Bullets
All common references to Free Will rely on what “could be” true.
What “could be” true relies on varying some conditions and considering the resulting hypothetical worlds.
Choosing which conditions are allowed to vary is hard.
One mostly consistent choice is that Secret conditions may vary, but others may not.
This use of “could be” may even be applied to obviously deterministic situations, like chess programs, without contradiction.

“The Secrecy is Essential to the Freedom of the Agent…”

- Daniel Dennett

Awhile back, I posted an audio clip of Daniel Dennett talking about chess programs, and how it makes sense to say that one “could have” beat the other, even though they’re deterministic programs.

It was a ten minute clip taken out of the full podcast, which was one hour.  On listening again, I may have lost some of the clarity of the connection to the topic of Free Will in the interests of brevity.  Because I think there is a worthwhile point here, I’m going to take a stab at a written summary.

If you want to find out how chess programs, Secrecy, and Free Will are looped together into one super-meme, click on the read more link…

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